Exploratory wavelet analysis of dengue seasonal patterns in Colombia
Abstract
Introduction: Dengue has a seasonal behavior associated with climatic changes, vector cycles, circulating serotypes, and population dynamics. The wavelet analysis makes it possible to separate a very long time series into calendar time and periods. This is the first time this technique is used in an exploratory manner to model the behavior of dengue in Colombia. Objective: To explore the annual seasonal dengue patterns in Colombia and in its five most endemic municipalities for the period 2007 to 2012, and for roughly annual cycles between 1978 and 2013 at the national level. Materials and methods: We made an exploratory wavelet analysis using data from all incident cases of dengue per epidemiological week for the period 2007 to 2012, and per year for 1978 to 2013. We used a first-order autoregressive model as the null hypothesis. Results: The effect of the 2010 epidemic was evident in both the national time series and the series for the five municipalities. Differences in interannual seasonal patterns were observed among municipalities. In addition, we identified roughly annual cycles of 2 to 5 years since 2004 at a national level. Conclusions: Wavelet analysis is useful to study a long time series containing changing seasonal patterns, as is the case of dengue in Colombia, and to identify differences among regions. These patterns need to be explored at smaller aggregate levels, and their relationships with different predictive variables need to be investigated.
Downloads
References
Brady OJ, Gething PW, Bhatt S, Messina JP, Brownstein JS, Hoen AG, et al. Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6:e1760. http://dx.doi.org/10. 1371/journal.pntd.0001760
Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, Moyes CL, et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature. 2013;496:504-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature12060
World Health Organization. Dengue and severe dengue. Fecha de consulta: 5 de mayo de 2015. Disponible en: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/
Castro RR. Costos del dengue en Colombia (2010-2012). Impacto en salud pública. Fecha de consulta: 29 de abril de 2015. Disponible en: http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=25900&Itemid=
Castañeda-Orjuela C, Díaz H, Álvis-Guzmán N, Olarte A, Rodríguez H, Camargo G, et al. Burden of disease and economic impact of dengue and severe dengue in Colombia, 2011. Value Health Reg Issues. 2012;1:123-8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vhri.2012.09.014
Castro-Rodríguez R, Galera-Gélvez K, López-Yescas JG, Rueda-Gallardo JA. Costs of dengue to the health system and individuals in Colombia from 2010 to 2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015;92:709-14. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.4269/ajtmh.14-0386
Instituto Nacional de Salud. Informe del evento dengue, hasta el periodo epidemiológico XIII, Colombia, 2014. Fecha de consulta: 2 de mayo de 2015. Disponible en: http://www.ins.gov.co/lineas-de-accion/Subdireccion-Vigilancia/Paginas/informes-de-evento.aspx
Castrillón JC, Castaño JC, Urcuqui S. Dengue in Colombia: Ten years of database records. Rev Chilena Infectol. 2015;32:22-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0716-10182015000200004
Villar LA, Rojas DP, Besada-Lombana S, Sarti E. Epidemiological trends of dengue disease in Colombia (2000-2011): A systematic review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9:e0003499. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd. 0003499
Johansson MA, Cummings DA, Glass GE. Multiyear climate variability and dengue-El Niño southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A longitudinal data analysis. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000168. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed. 1000168
Thai KT, Anders KL. The role of climate variability and change in the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of dengue. Exp Biol Med (Maywood). 2011;236: 944-54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ebm.2011.010402
Cazelles B, Chávez M, Magny GC, Guégan JF, Hales S. Time-dependent spectral analysis of epidemiological time-series with wavelets. J R Soc Interface. 2007;4:625-36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.0212
Stewart-Ibarra AM, Muñoz AG, Ryan SJ, Ayala EB, Borbor-Córdova MJ, Finkelstein JL, et al. Spatiotemporal clustering, climate periodicity, and social-ecological risk factors for dengue during an outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14:610. http://dx.doi.org/10. 1186/s12879-014-0610-4
Padilla JC, Rojas DP, Sáenz-Gómez R. Dengue en Colombia. Epidemiología de la reemergencia a la hiper-endemia. Bogotá: Guías de Impresión Ltda; 2012.
Cazelles B, Hales S. Infectious diseases, climate influences, and nonstationarity. PLoS Med. 2006;3:e328. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030328
Cazelles B, Cazelles K, Chávez M. Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: Impact of statistical tests. J R Soc Interface. 2013;11:20130585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2013.0585
Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON, Kappey J. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature. 2001;414:716-23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/414716a
Cazelles B, Chávez M, McMichael AJ, Hales S. Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand. PLoS Med. 2005;2:e106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020106
Adak S. Time-dependent spectral analysis of nonstationary time series. J Am Stat Assoc. 1998;93:1488-501. http://dx. doi.org/10.2307/2670062
Chowell G, Cazelles B, Broutin H, Munayco CV. The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008. BMC Infect Dis. 2011;11:164. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-11-164
Viboud C, Bjørnstad ON, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grenfell BT. Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science. 2006;312:447-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1125237
Stoddard ST, Wearing HJ, Reiner RC, Morrison AC, Astete H, Vilcarromero S, et al. Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8:e3003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd. 0003003
Simões TC, Codeço CT, Nobre AA, Eiras AE. Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti. PLoS One. 2013;8:e64773. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0064773
Cuong HQ, Hien NT, Duong TN, Phong TV, Cam NN, Farrar J, et al. Quantifying the emergence of dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998-2009. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2011;5:e1322. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001322
Azad S, Lio P. Emerging trends of malaria-dengue geo-graphical coupling in the Southeast Asia region. J Vector Borne Dis. 2014;51:165-71.
Grisales N, Poupardin R, Gómez S, Fonseca-González I, Ranson H, Lenhart A. Temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti in Colombia compromises dengue vector control. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013;7:e2438. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002438
Ocampo CB, Salazar-Terreros MJ, Mina NJ, McAllister J, Brogdon W. Insecticide resistance status of Aedes aegypti in 10 localities in Colombia. Acta Trop. 2011;118:37-44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2011.01.007
Instituto Nacional de Salud. Mortalidad 1998-2011 y situación de salud en los minicipios de frontera terrestre en Colombia. Bogotá: Imprenta Nacional de Colombia; 2013. p. 237.
Naish S, Dale P, Mackenzie JS, McBride J, Mengersen K, Tong S. Climate change and dengue: A critical and system-atic review of quantitative modelling approaches. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14:167. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-14-167
Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA. Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Analysis of the literature and model development. J Med Entomol. 1993;30:1003-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmedent/30.6. 1003
Romero-Vega L, Pacheco O, de la Hoz-Restrepo F, Díaz-Quijano FA. Evaluación de la notificación del dengue durante una epidemia, Colombia. Rev Saúde Pública. 2014;48:899-905. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-8910.2014048005321
Zea D, Osorio L. Situación del sistema de vigilancia de casos de dengue en un municipio de Colombia. Rev Salud Pública (Bogotá). 2011;13:785-95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0124-00642011000500007
Ramírez M, Lozano N, Huguett C, Florez L. Informe preliminar de análisis de concordancia entre REPS y Sivigila. Bogotá, D.C.: Instituto Nacional de Salud; 2012.
Some similar items:
- Constanza Pardo, Ricardo Cendales, Survival analysis of cervical cancer patients , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 3 (2009)
- Raúl Murillo, Ricardo Cendales, Carolina Wiesner, Marion Piñeros, Sandra Tovar, Effectiveness of cytology-based cervical cancer screening in the Colombian health system , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 3 (2009)
- Sandra Lorena Girón, Julio César Mateus, Fabián Méndez, Impact of an open waste disposal site on the occurrence of respiratory symptoms and on health care costs of children , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 3 (2009)
- José Joaquín Carvajal, Ligia Inés Moncada, Mauricio Humberto Rodríguez, Ligia del Pilar Pérez, Víctor Alberto Olano, Characterization of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera:Culicidae) larval habitats near the Amazon River in Colombia , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 3 (2009)
- Andrés Páez, Gloria Rey, Carlos Agudelo, Alvaro Dulce, Edgar Parra, Hernando Díaz-Granados, Damaris Heredia, Luis Polo, Outbreak of urban rabies transmitted by dogs in Santa Marta, northern Colombia , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 3 (2009)
- Patricia Escobar, Katherine Paola Luna, Indira Paola Hernández, César Mauricio Rueda, María Magdalena Zorro, Simon L. Croft, In vitro susceptibility of Trypanosoma cruzi strains from Santander, Colombia, to hexadecylphosphocholine (miltefosine), nifurtimox and benznidazole , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 3 (2009)
- Gustavo Pradilla, Julio César Mantilla, Reynaldo Badillo, Human rabies encephalitis by a vampire bat bite in an urban area of Colombia , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 2 (2009)
- Mauricio Beltrán, María Cristina Navas, María Patricia Arbeláez, Jorge Donado, Sergio Jaramillo, Fernando De la Hoz, Cecilia Estrada, Lucía del Pilar Cortés, Amalia de Maldonado, Gloria Rey, Seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus and human immunodeficiency virus infection in a population of multiply-transfused patients in Colombia , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 2 (2009)
- Rosa Magdalena Uscátegui, Adriana M. Correa, Jaime Carmona-Fonseca, Changes in retinol, hemoglobin and ferritin concentrations in Colombian children with malaria , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 2 (2009)
- Claudia M.E. Romero-Vivas, Luis Eduardo Castro, Lila Visbal, Ana María Santos, Esther Díaz, Cutaneous myiasis by Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) (Díptera Calliphoridae) in Hospital Universidad del Norte, Soledad, Atlántico , Biomedica: Vol. 29 No. 1 (2009)
Article metrics | |
---|---|
Abstract views | |
Galley vies | |
PDF Views | |
HTML views | |
Other views |